Underwriting for the 'Interest Rate Floor': The New Math on Land Carries
Underwriting for the 'Interest Rate Floor': The New Math on Land Carries
The days of 3% money are gone. We all know that. But here's what a lot of guys are still wrestling with in 2026: how to actually underwrite a land deal when rates aren't coming back down to those emergency pandemic levels: and more importantly, how to stop waiting for them to.
At Cooper Land Company, we've completely retooled the way we run numbers on land acquisitions and development holds. The math that worked in 2021 doesn't work anymore. The assumptions about what "normal" looks like have shifted. And frankly, that's not a bad thing for serious investors who are willing to adapt.
Let's break down how the carry math has changed, why we're underwriting differently now, and why a stabilized interest rate environment is actually better for patient, disciplined buyers.
The 2021 Playbook is Dead
Back in the frenzy years, everyone was underwriting land deals with a few critical assumptions baked in:
Rates would stay low indefinitely (or at least long enough to flip the deal)
Values would continue climbing 15-20% per year
Exit timelines were aggressive: 12 to 24 months max
Seller financing was cheap and plentiful
The whole strategy was built on speed. Buy it, hold it for a year, and sell it to the next guy at a premium before the debt got expensive. It worked: until it didn't.
When the Fed started moving rates in 2022, a lot of folks got caught holding expensive dirt with expensive debt. The guys who survived were the ones who could afford to wait it out or who had locked in long-term, fixed-rate financing before the music stopped.
Now we're in a different world. Rates are hovering in the 6-7% range for land loans, and they're not moving much. This is the floor. And that means the old playbook: the one built on cheap debt and fast exits: needs to be thrown out.
What 'Stabilized' Actually Means for Land Investors
Here's the thing about stabilized rates: they force discipline.
When money was cheap, you could justify almost any land purchase because the cost of carry was so low. A 3% note on a $500,000 tract is only $15,000 a year in interest. Add in taxes and insurance, and you're still under $25K annually. That's manageable even if the property sits idle for a while.
But at 7%? That same $500,000 tract costs you $35,000 a year just in interest, plus another $10-15K in taxes and insurance. You're pushing $50K in annual carry costs. Suddenly, the math gets real tight if you're planning to hold for five years before development kicks in.
So what does stabilized mean? It means you can't rely on appreciation to bail you out. You can't assume rates will drop and refinance you into a better position. You have to underwrite the deal based on what it actually produces: or what it will be worth when the path of growth arrives: and you have to be honest about how long that's going to take.
At Cooper Land Company, we're now stress-testing every acquisition against a 7-8% interest rate environment for the entire hold period. If the deal doesn't work at those numbers, we don't do it. Period.
The New Underwriting Checklist
Here's how we approach land deals in 2026, and what you should be thinking about if you're considering a hold-and-develop play in North Texas:
1. Triple-Check the Path of Growth Timeline
In 2021, you could buy five years ahead of the growth curve and still make money because prices were climbing so fast. Now? You need to be two years ahead, max. If the infrastructure (water, sewer, roads) isn't coming within 36 months, the carry cost will eat your lunch.
We're looking at city comprehensive plans, ETJ expansion schedules, and TxDOT project timelines before we even submit an offer. If the path of growth is speculative or vague, we pass.
2. Factor in 'Dead Money' Years
Land doesn't produce income while you're holding it (unless you've got an ag lease or a billboard, which helps but doesn't cover the full carry). Every year you hold is a year of negative cash flow.
We now build a full "dead money" model into every deal: interest, taxes, insurance, maintenance, and legal fees. If the deal requires more than three years of dead money before you can start selling lots or flipping to a builder, the ROI has to be significant: 25%+ IRR minimum.
3. Seller Financing is Your Best Friend
Bank debt at 7% is painful. Seller financing at 5-6% with flexible terms is gold.
We've been pushing hard on seller-financed deals because the terms are negotiable. You can structure interest-only payments, longer amortization schedules, or even balloon notes that give you time to get the property entitled and shovel-ready before the big payment hits.
If a seller won't carry at least 30-40% of the purchase price, we're looking at whether the deal still pencils with hard money or conventional financing. A lot of times, it doesn't.
4. Exit Strategy Must Be Realistic
The "flip it in 12 months" strategy is dead. Builders aren't buying unentitled land on speculation anymore. They want shovel-ready lots with utilities at the street.
So now we're underwriting with two potential exits:
Option A: Hold for 3-5 years, get it platted and entitled, sell finished lots to a regional builder.
Option B: Sell to a large developer or institutional buyer who has the capital and timeline to do the heavy lifting themselves.
Either way, we're not assuming a quick flip unless we've already got a buyer lined up before we close.
5. Build in Contingency Capital
This is the big one. In 2021, nobody worried about having extra cash on hand because values kept going up and you could always refinance or sell if you got tight.
Now? You need 18-24 months of carry costs sitting in reserve, just in case. If the market softens, if entitlements take longer than expected, if a builder backs out: you need cushion.
We won't let a client buy land unless they can show us they've got the reserves to weather a two-year delay. That's not pessimism; that's realism.
Why This Environment Actually Favors Serious Buyers
Here's the counterintuitive part: a stabilized interest rate environment is actually better for disciplined, long-term investors than the chaos of 2021-2023.
Why? Because the competition thins out.
When rates were at 3%, every dentist, lawyer, and guy with a little cash thought he was a land developer. The market was flooded with casual buyers who had no idea what they were doing but figured they couldn't lose.
Now? Those guys are gone. They either got burned or they're sitting on the sidelines waiting for rates to drop (which isn't happening anytime soon).
That means the real opportunities: the tracts that are two years ahead of the tollway, the ETJ parcels that just got annexed, the 100-acre development plays: are going to guys who know how to underwrite a deal at 7% and still make it work.
At Cooper Land Company, we're seeing less competition on good deals than we did two years ago. The sellers who were holding out for 2021 prices have finally come back to earth. And the buyers who are still active are serious: they've got capital, they've got patience, and they've got realistic expectations.
That's a much healthier market than the frenzy.
The Bottom Line: Underwrite for Reality, Not Hope
If you're looking at land in North Texas right now, here's the mindset shift you need to make:
Stop waiting for rates to drop. They're not dropping anytime soon, and even if they do, it won't be back to 3%. This is the floor.
Underwrite every deal assuming 7% debt, a 3-5 year hold, and zero appreciation in the first two years. If the deal still works at those assumptions, you've got something real.
And if you need help running the numbers or figuring out whether a tract is truly in the path of growth: or just expensive dirt: give us a call. We're doing this every day, and we've seen enough deals blow up (and enough deals work) to know the difference.
The math has changed. The playbook has changed. But the opportunity is still there for the guys who are willing to do the homework.
The 'Data Center' Dividend: Why High-Voltage Power is the New 'Frontage'
For decades, the most valuable land in North Texas has been determined by one thing: proximity to major roadways. Frontage on I-35, US-380, or the Dallas North Tollway meant instant value. It meant visibility, access, and the ability to attract commercial tenants or residential developers who needed to be "on the path."
But in 2026, there's a new variable in the land value equation that's catching a lot of people off guard: power infrastructure.
Specifically, high-voltage transmission lines and substation capacity.
With massive data center projects popping up across Denton, Ellis, and Collin counties, institutional buyers are paying enormous premiums for land that's within a mile or two of serious electrical infrastructure. And I'm not talking about the standard three-phase power you'd need for a strip center: I'm talking about the kind of industrial-grade, high-voltage capacity that can support a 100-megawatt facility running 24/7.
If you own land in North Texas and you're sitting near a major substation or transmission corridor, you might be sitting on a goldmine you didn't even know about.
Why Data Centers are Flooding Into North Texas
Let's start with the macro trend: data centers are exploding across the Sun Belt, and Texas is ground zero.
The reasons are straightforward:
No state income tax, which makes Texas attractive for both employees and corporate headquarters.
Business-friendly regulatory environment, meaning less red tape for large industrial projects.
Abundant and relatively cheap electricity, thanks to the ERCOT grid and Texas' aggressive push into renewables and natural gas.
Proximity to major metro areas, which means lower latency for cloud services and enterprise customers.
North Texas in particular has become a magnet for hyperscale data centers: the massive facilities used by AWS, Microsoft, Google, and other cloud providers. These aren't small operations. A single hyperscale data center can be 500,000+ square feet, cost $500 million to build, and consume as much power as a small city.
And here's the kicker: they don't need highway frontage. They don't need visibility. They don't even need to be near a population center.
What they need is power. Lots of it.
Power Infrastructure: The New 'Frontage'
In the old playbook, if you had 50 acres on a major highway, you could attract retail, multifamily, industrial, basically anything. Location was king.
But for data centers, location is secondary to infrastructure. Specifically:
Proximity to high-voltage transmission lines (138kV or higher)
Available substation capacity to handle 50-100+ megawatts of load
Redundant power feeds for reliability and uptime
Fiber connectivity for data transfer (though this is usually easier to solve than power)
If your land checks those boxes, it doesn't matter if you're in the middle of nowhere. In fact, that's often preferred: land in rural areas is cheaper, there's less neighborhood opposition, and there's more space for expansion.
At Cooper Land Company, we've started pre-screening every large tract acquisition for power infrastructure before we even look at the zoning or road access. If there's a major transmission line running through or adjacent to the property, that's a conversation worth having with the landowner.
Where the Data Center Land Rush is Happening
Right now, the hottest data center corridors in North Texas are:
1. Denton County (I-35E Corridor)
Denton has become one of the most active data center markets in the state. There are multiple transmission lines running through the county, and Oncor (the primary electric utility) has been upgrading substation capacity to accommodate the demand.
We're seeing developers pay $40,000-$60,000 per acre for tracts near major substations: land that would have been worth $10,000-$15,000 an acre for residential development just a few years ago.
2. Ellis County (I-45 South)
Ellis County has always been the "cheaper" option for industrial buyers priced out of Dallas County, but data centers are taking it to another level. The combination of cheap land, available power, and proximity to Dallas makes it a no-brainer for large-scale projects.
3. Collin County (North of McKinney)
The northern part of Collin County: around Melissa, Anna, and Van Alst: has been attracting a lot of attention from data center developers. The land is still relatively affordable (compared to closer-in suburbs), and there's plenty of transmission capacity running north toward the Oklahoma border.
4. Kaufman County (I-20 East)
Kaufman has been a sleeper market for years, but the combination of cheap land, good highway access, and existing industrial infrastructure is starting to pay off. We're seeing data center projects pop up along the I-20 corridor, and land values are starting to reflect that.
What This Means for Landowners
If you own a large tract (50+ acres) in a rural or semi-rural part of North Texas, here's what you need to do:
1. Find Out Where the Transmission Lines Are
Pull up a transmission line map for your area. Oncor, CoServ, and TNMP all have service territory maps available online. If you've got a 138kV or higher line running through or near your property, that's a massive value-add.
2. Check Substation Capacity
Call your local utility and ask about available capacity at the nearest substation. If there's 50+ megawatts of available load, you're in play for data center interest.
3. Don't Assume It's Just for Data Centers
Even if your land doesn't end up being a data center site, proximity to power infrastructure can also attract other industrial users: battery storage facilities, manufacturing plants, cold storage, and logistics hubs all need serious power.
4. Get an Expert Opinion
This isn't the kind of thing you can DIY. If you think your land has data center potential, talk to a broker who understands the market. At Cooper Land Company, we've been working with data center site selectors and developers for years, and we know what they're looking for.
The Takeaway: Power is the New Path of Growth
Ten years ago, the path of growth in North Texas was all about where the next highway or tollway extension was going. Today, it's just as much about where the power infrastructure is.
If you own land near a major transmission corridor or substation, don't sleep on it. The data center boom is real, and the premiums being paid for well-located, power-rich sites are unlike anything we've seen in the traditional development world.
The old rule was "location, location, location." The new rule is "power, power, power."
The 'Small Lot' Pivot: Fighting High Rates with Density
For the last decade, the trend in North Texas residential development has been clear: bigger lots, bigger houses, more space. The 1-acre estate. The 2-acre "mini ranch." The sprawling subdivisions where every house sits on a half-acre with room for a pool, a shop, and a three-car garage.
But in 2026, that trend is reversing: fast.
With mortgage rates still sitting in the 6-7% range and home prices at all-time highs, developers are pivoting hard toward smaller lots and higher density. The math is simple: if you can't make the per-unit economics work on a half-acre lot, you shrink the lot and stack more units per acre.
It's not a new strategy: cities have been doing this for years: but it's now bleeding into the outer suburbs and ETJ areas that have traditionally been "big lot" territory. And if you own development land in the path of growth, this shift is going to change the way you think about platting, zoning, and buyer profiles.
Let's break down why this is happening, where it's happening, and what it means for land values.
Why Developers are Shrinking Lots
The driver here is affordability: or more accurately, the lack of it.
The median home price in the Dallas-Fort Worth metro is now over $400,000. Add in a 7% mortgage rate, and you're looking at a monthly payment of around $3,000 for a median-priced house. That's a huge barrier for first-time buyers, young families, and anyone who isn't making six figures.
Builders know this. They're not stupid. If they can't hit a $350,000-$400,000 price point, they're going to lose a huge chunk of the market.
So how do you build a house for $350K when land, labor, and materials keep getting more expensive? You shrink the lot.
Here's the math:
A 50-acre development platted into 100 half-acre lots = $500,000 per acre land cost, $5,000 per lot in land cost alone.
The same 50 acres platted into 200 quarter-acre lots = $250,000 per acre land cost, $2,500 per lot.
By doubling the density, you cut the per-lot land cost in half. That savings flows directly into the builder's ability to hit a lower price point, which means more sales and faster absorption.
It's not about luxury anymore. It's about volume.
Where the 'Small Lot' Pivot is Happening
This trend is most visible in the ETJ and outer-ring suburbs where land is still cheap enough to make high-density projects pencil, but close enough to job centers that buyers are willing to sacrifice lot size for location.
The hotspots right now:
Anna and Melissa (Collin County)
Both towns have been growing like crazy, but the land prices have stayed (relatively) reasonable compared to closer-in suburbs like Prosper or Frisco. Developers are platting subdivisions with 50-foot-wide lots (around 6,000-7,000 square feet total) and packing 6-8 units per acre instead of the traditional 2-3.
Forney and Royse City (Rockwall/Kaufman Counties)
The I-30 corridor east of Dallas has always been the "value" option for buyers priced out of Collin County. Now, with rates high and affordability tight, it's seeing a surge in high-density residential projects targeting first-time buyers.
Gunter and Howe (Grayson County)
As the Dallas North Tollway pushes farther north, developers are starting to look at the land around Gunter and Howe. These are historically "big lot" rural areas, but the writing is on the wall: the density is coming.
Denton County ETJ
Denton has been more resistant to high-density sprawl than some other counties, but economics are economics. We're starting to see cluster developments and "cottage court" subdivisions pop up in the unincorporated areas where zoning is more flexible.
What This Means for Land Values
Here's where it gets interesting: smaller lots don't necessarily mean cheaper land. In fact, in a lot of cases, the opposite is true.
If a builder can get 200 lots out of your 50-acre tract instead of 100, they can afford to pay you more per acre: because their per-lot land cost goes down even as the total purchase price goes up.
Let's run a quick example:
Scenario A (Traditional Half-Acre Lots):
50 acres
100 lots
Builder pays $20,000 per lot in land cost
Total land purchase: $2,000,000 ($40,000/acre)
Scenario B (High-Density Quarter-Acre Lots):
50 acres
200 lots
Builder pays $12,500 per lot in land cost
Total land purchase: $2,500,000 ($50,000/acre)
Same property, 25% higher sale price, just because the builder can get more units out of it.
This is why we're seeing developers pay premiums for tracts that allow flexible platting and higher density. If your land is in a city's ETJ with minimal restrictions, or if it's in a county that allows cluster zoning, that's gold right now.
The Build-to-Rent Angle
There's another piece to this puzzle: build-to-rent (BTR) developers.
BTR projects: entire subdivisions built specifically for rental rather than sale: are exploding across North Texas. These developers love small lots because their business model is all about maximizing the number of rental units per acre.
A BTR developer can take a 40-acre tract, plat it into 160 units on tiny lots (4-5 per acre), build identical 1,500-square-foot houses, and rent them for $2,200-$2,500 a month. The ROI on that kind of project is absurd compared to traditional single-family for-sale development.
And because they're institutional buyers with deep pockets, they can often outbid traditional homebuilders on the front end.
We've seen BTR groups pay $60,000-$70,000 per acre for land that would have been $40,000-$50,000 in a traditional sale: because they can stack the density and make the math work.
Should You Fight It or Lean Into It?
If you're a landowner in the path of growth, this trend is going to affect you whether you like it or not.
Some sellers hate the idea of their property being turned into a "cookie-cutter" subdivision with tiny lots. I get it. But the market doesn't care about your feelings: it cares about economics.
If you want top dollar for your land, you need to understand that the highest and best use in 2026 might not be 2-acre estate lots. It might be 50-foot-wide lots with 1,800-square-foot houses selling for $350K.
At Cooper Land Company, we help landowners navigate this shift. We'll run the numbers on multiple platting scenarios, connect you with the right builders and developers, and make sure you're getting maximum value: whether that's a traditional subdivision or a high-density play.
The market is shifting. The question is whether you're going to shift with it.
Section 179 for Developers: The Infrastructure Deduction You Might Be Missing
Most real estate investors know about Section 179: it's the tax code provision that lets you write off the full cost of equipment and vehicles in the year you buy them, rather than depreciating them over time.
The classic example: buy a $70,000 truck for your business, write off the full $70,000 in year one, and lower your taxable income by the same amount. It's a massive tax benefit, and it's one of the reasons you see so many contractors and small business owners driving brand-new F-250s.
But here's what a lot of land developers don't realize: Section 179 isn't just for trucks and tractors. It can also apply to a wide range of land improvements and infrastructure costs that go into getting a development site ready.
And in 2026, with 100% bonus depreciation restored for qualified property, the tax savings available to developers who understand how to use Section 179 (and how it stacks with bonus depreciation) are enormous.
If you're developing land in North Texas and you're not taking advantage of this, you're leaving money on the table. Let's break down how it works, what qualifies, and how to structure your projects to maximize the deduction.
What is Section 179?
Section 179 is an IRS tax code provision that allows businesses to deduct the full purchase price of qualifying equipment and property in the year it's placed in service, rather than depreciating it over multiple years.
For 2026, the Section 179 deduction limit is $1,220,000, with a phase-out threshold of $3,050,000. That means if you spend less than $3 million on qualifying property in a given year, you can deduct up to $1.22 million of it immediately.
Here's the key: Section 179 is designed to incentivize business investment. The IRS wants you to spend money on your business, hire people, and grow the economy. So they give you a tax break for doing it.
For most small businesses, Section 179 is used for vehicles, machinery, computers, and office equipment. But for land developers, it can also apply to site preparation costs, infrastructure improvements, and certain types of construction equipment.
What Qualifies for Section 179 in Land Development?
This is where it gets interesting: and where a lot of developers miss the opportunity.
The IRS rules say that Section 179 applies to "tangible personal property" used in a trade or business. Real estate itself (the dirt) doesn't qualify. But a lot of the stuff you do to prepare that dirt for development does qualify.
Here's a partial list of what can qualify for Section 179 in a land development context:
1. Site Preparation Equipment
Bulldozers, backhoes, excavators, loaders
Grading equipment and compactors
Dump trucks and haul vehicles
Skid steers and utility tractors
If you're doing your own site work (or if you own the equipment and lease it to a contractor), all of this equipment can be Section 179 deductible.
2. Utility Infrastructure
Water and sewer line installation equipment
Boring machines and trenchers
Generators and temporary power systems
Fencing and gates for site security
Again, the key is that the equipment used to install this infrastructure is deductible, even if the infrastructure itself is considered a real property improvement.
3. Road and Drainage Improvements
Asphalt pavers and rollers
Concrete mixers and pumps
Drainage pipe and culverts (in some cases, depending on classification)
Signage and traffic control equipment
This is a gray area: some of these items are clearly equipment (the paver), while others (the pipe) might be classified as part of the real property. Your CPA will need to make the call based on your specific situation.
4. Landscaping and Erosion Control
Hydroseeding equipment
Irrigation systems (if removable)
Retaining wall forms and equipment
Tree spades and landscape machinery
Landscaping costs are generally deductible, and the equipment used to install them can qualify for Section 179.
5. Temporary Structures and Site Offices
Portable offices and job trailers
Temporary fencing and barricades
Portable restrooms and hand-wash stations
Tool sheds and storage containers
These are all considered personal property, not real estate, so they're fair game for Section 179.
How Section 179 Stacks with Bonus Depreciation
Here's where the tax strategy gets really powerful: Section 179 and bonus depreciation can be used together.
As of January 19, 2025, 100% bonus depreciation is permanently restored for qualified property. That means you can immediately write off the full cost of new equipment, machinery, and certain improvements in the year they're placed in service: with no cap.
So here's how you structure it:
Use Section 179 to deduct up to $1.22 million of smaller equipment, tools, and personal property costs.
Use 100% bonus depreciation for the big-ticket items: bulldozers, excavators, heavy machinery: that exceed the Section 179 limit.
Stack them both in the same tax year to maximize your deduction and lower your taxable income as much as possible.
For a developer spending $2-3 million on site prep and equipment for a large subdivision, this can result in a first-year tax deduction of $2 million+, which translates to $500,000-$700,000 in tax savings depending on your bracket.
That's real money.
The Strategy: Buy at Year-End, Deduct Immediately
Here's a common move we see savvy developers make:
In November or December, they go out and buy the equipment they were planning to buy anyway: tractors, trucks, trailers, site prep gear: and they put it into service before December 31st.
Why? Because as long as the equipment is placed in service (meaning it's actually being used in your business) before the end of the year, you can deduct the full cost on that year's tax return.
So if you're looking at a big tax bill in 2026, and you've got a development project ramping up in 2027, you can frontload the equipment purchases, take the deduction in 2026, and lower your tax liability before year-end.
It's a timing play, but it's perfectly legal and it's how a lot of developers manage their cash flow and tax exposure.
What Doesn't Qualify
Let's be clear: not everything qualifies for Section 179.
Real estate improvements like grading, paving, and utility installation are generally considered part of the land itself, which means they have to be depreciated over 15-39 years (depending on the classification) rather than expensed immediately.
Buildings and permanent structures also don't qualify: you can't Section 179 a house or a commercial building.
And land itself never qualifies. The dirt is always considered a capital asset that doesn't depreciate.
But: and this is important: the equipment used to improve the land does qualify. So even though the grading work itself doesn't qualify, the bulldozer you bought to do the grading does.
That's the distinction your CPA needs to understand.
Work with a CPA Who Knows Development
Here's my disclaimer: I'm not a CPA, and this isn't tax advice. Every project is different, and the IRS rules on what qualifies for Section 179 can get murky depending on how you structure things.
What I do know is that too many developers are missing out on massive tax savings because their accountant doesn't specialize in real estate development and doesn't know how to properly classify equipment, improvements, and site work.
If you're spending serious money on land development in 2026, you need to work with a CPA who understands Section 179, bonus depreciation, and cost segregation: and who can help you structure your purchases and expenses to maximize the benefit.
At Cooper Land Company, we work with several CPAs who specialize in development and 1031 exchanges, and we're happy to make introductions if you need a referral.
The Takeaway: Don't Overpay on Taxes
Section 179 isn't some obscure loophole: it's a legitimate, well-established tax benefit that's designed to encourage business investment.
If you're developing land in North Texas and you're buying equipment, doing site prep, or installing infrastructure, you need to understand how Section 179 applies to your project. The tax savings can be enormous, and the timing flexibility gives you control over when you take the deduction.
Don't leave money on the table. Talk to your CPA, run the numbers, and make sure you're maximizing every deduction available to you.
The 'Gunter-Tioga' Gap: The Final Frontier of Grayson County
If you've been watching the Dallas North Tollway extension for the last few years, you know the story: Prosper exploded. Celina is next. And Gunter is already seeing land prices spike as the pavement gets closer.
But here's what the smart money is starting to figure out: Gunter isn't the end of the line. It's the middle.
The real long-term play in Grayson County isn't Gunter: it's the gap between Gunter and Tioga. And if you're willing to look five to ten years ahead instead of two, this is where the next wave of North Texas land appreciation is going to happen.
Let me explain why.
The Tollway is Coming: Eventually
The Dallas North Tollway extension has been the biggest growth driver in North Texas for the last decade. Every town it touches turns into a boomtown within five years.
Right now, the tollway officially ends at US-380 in Prosper. But the long-term plan: already funded and in progress: is to extend it all the way to the Oklahoma border.
That means it's going through Celina, through Gunter, and eventually through Tioga before it hits the state line.
The timeline? Celina is getting the tollway within the next 2-3 years. Gunter is probably 5-7 years out. Tioga is more like 10-12 years.
But here's the thing: you don't wait until the pavement is down to buy the land. You buy when it's still speculative, when the sellers don't fully believe it's coming, and when the prices are still based on agricultural use instead of development potential.
That's the window we're in right now for the Gunter-Tioga gap.
Why Tioga is Different from Gunter
Gunter is already starting to see developer interest. Land prices have gone from $8,000-$10,000 an acre three years ago to $15,000-$20,000 an acre today. That's still cheap compared to Celina or Prosper, but the word is out.
Tioga, on the other hand, is still flying under the radar.
Most people don't even know where Tioga is. It's a tiny town (population around 1,000) sitting about 10 miles north of Gunter, right on the edge of Lake Ray Roberts. It's agricultural, rural, and quiet: exactly the kind of place that looks like "the middle of nowhere" until the path of growth shows up.
But here's what makes Tioga interesting:
1. It's the Last Stop Before Oklahoma
Once the tollway gets past Tioga, there's nothing but open country until you hit the Red River. That makes Tioga the natural "final destination" for North Texas suburban sprawl before you're officially out of the metro.
2. Lake Ray Roberts Proximity
Tioga sits right on the western edge of Lake Ray Roberts, one of the largest lakes in North Texas. That means there's potential for lakefront and lake-adjacent development, which commands a premium compared to inland tracts.
3. Low Land Prices
Right now, you can still buy large tracts in and around Tioga for $6,000-$8,000 an acre. That's agricultural pricing. Once the tollway timeline gets firmer and developers start sniffing around, those prices are going to double or triple.
4. Flexible Zoning and ETJ
Tioga is a small town with minimal ETJ reach, which means a lot of the surrounding land is in unincorporated Grayson County. That's a huge advantage for developers who want to avoid city zoning battles and red tape.
The 'Gap' Strategy: Buy Between the Growth
Here's the play: instead of chasing the land that's already in the path of growth (Gunter, Celina), you buy the land that's one town ahead.
The reason this works is simple: the growth doesn't stop. It just pauses while the infrastructure catches up.
Prosper boomed, then Celina started booming, and now Gunter is starting to boom. The logical next step is Tioga. It's not a question of if: it's a question of when.
And when you're buying land as a 10-year hold, "when" doesn't matter as much as "how much."
If you buy a 100-acre tract in Tioga today for $700,000, and in 10 years it's worth $3-4 million because the tollway is five miles away instead of fifteen, that's a 4-5x return. Even after carrying costs, taxes, and inflation, that's a massive win.
But you have to be patient. This isn't a flip play. This is a generational hold for people who understand that North Texas is going to keep growing north for the next 20-30 years, and Tioga is directly in that path.
What to Look for in the Gunter-Tioga Gap
If you're serious about buying land in this area, here's what we're telling clients to focus on:
1. Highway Access
The tollway is the main event, but US-377 and FM-922 are also critical corridors. Land near these roads will develop faster because it's accessible even before the tollway arrives.
2. Water and Sewer Potential
Grayson County is starting to invest in regional water infrastructure, which is a huge deal. If you can find a tract that's within 2-3 miles of a water line extension, that's gold.
3. Topography
A lot of the land around Tioga is rolling and scenic, which is great for residential but can be expensive to develop. Look for tracts that are relatively flat or gently sloped: those will be easier to plat and more attractive to builders.
4. Lake Proximity
Anything within 5-10 miles of Lake Ray Roberts has "lifestyle" appeal. Even if it's not waterfront, the marketing angle of "lake community" adds value.
5. Size and Shape
For a long-term hold, you want at least 50-100 acres. Anything smaller and you're not going to have enough scale to attract a major developer. And make sure the tract has good geometry: long, narrow strips are harder to plat and less valuable.
The Risk: It's a Long Hold
Let's be honest: buying land in Tioga in 2026 is a bet on 2035 or 2040. The tollway won't be there tomorrow. The builders won't be lining up next year. And you're going to be carrying the property: paying taxes, insurance, and debt service: for a decade or more.
That's the risk.
If you need liquidity in five years, this isn't the play. If you're speculating with borrowed money and you don't have the reserves to weather a long hold, this isn't the play.
But if you've got the capital, the patience, and the belief that North Texas is going to keep growing north (which it will), this is one of the best long-term land investments you can make right now.
The Takeaway: Think Two Towns Ahead
The path of growth in North Texas is predictable. The tollway goes north, the people follow, and the land values follow the people.
Right now, everyone is focused on Celina and Gunter. That's fine: those are great markets. But the guys who are going to make the biggest returns over the next 10-15 years are the ones who are buying in the Gunter-Tioga gap today.
It's the final frontier of Grayson County. And it's not going to stay quiet for long.
If you want to talk about land in this area: or if you want help evaluating a specific tract: give Cooper Land Company a call. We've been tracking the tollway extension for years, and we know where the next wave of growth is headed.
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